Thursday, December 3, 2015

How much Zach Greinke could get

David Price just got paid $217 million for 7 years at the Boston Red Sox.
In the last 2 seasons David Price has an ERA+ of 134 which is tenth among starting pitchers, he has an FIP of 2.78 which is 7th among starting pitchers, and a WAR of 10.6 which is 9th among starting pitchers.
If you look into the average fast ball speed in the last four years his velocity hasn't been where it was in 2012.  2012 Price's average fast ball was at 95.5 MPH, in 2013 Price's average fastball was 93.5 MPH, in 2014 Price's average fast ball was at 93.2 MPH, and in 2015 Price's average fastball was at 94.2 MPH.
In 2012 Price's K% was 24.5%, in 2013 the K% for Price was 20.4%, in 2014 the K% was 26.9%, in 2015 the K% was 25.3%.  In 2012 Price's walk percentage was 7.1%, in 2013 Price's walk percentage was 3.7%, in 2014 Price's walk percentage was 3.8%, in 2015 Price's walk percentage was 5.3%.  In 2012 Price's swinging strike percentage was 8.4%, in 2013 his swinging strike percentage was 8.0%, in 2014 his swinging strike percentage was 10.6%, and in 2015 his swinging strike percentage was at a career high 11.9%.
Now, let's look at Price in the post season.
David Price's post season career looks like this:
63.1 innings, 5.12 ERA
2015 season:
23.1 innings pitched, 6.17 ERA, 23 K, 3BB
Okay, that was all of David Price.  Let's take a look at other pitchers
Go back to 2011.  The best pitchers that year based on WAR was Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, and Jared Weaver.  All five of these guys have fallen off a cliff.
Halladay's WAR was 8.9, Lee's WAR was 8.6, Verlander's WAR was 8.4, Sabathia's WAR was 7.5, Weaver's WAR was 7.0.
Halladay's following 2 years of WAR
2012 0.9
2013 -0.9
Lee's WAR in 2014 was an alarming 0.8 and Lee did not pitch in 2015.
Verlander's WAR in 2014 was just 1.1.
Weaver's WAR in 2015 was just 0.3.
With all that said there's been reports of Jeff Samardzija has received a $100 million offer and Johnny Cueto just turned down a contract that was worth $120 million.  Also, keep in mind that Jordan Zimmerman just signed a contract that was worth more than $100 million.  So, the question remains how much could Greinke get?  If history repeats itself then Greinke shouldn't get a lengthy contract, but, Greinke should get paid still.  I'd have to go 6 years at $210.  That's more money than Price per year which would be a great value for Greinke.  You wouldn't have to hit that age 40 season and you would still get a great amount of value.

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